On June 30, 2026, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment released the national air quality forecast for the first half of July, based on joint consultations by the China National Environmental Monitoring Centre, the National Meteorological Centre, the Joint Centre for Air Pollution Prevention and Control, and several regional air quality forecasting centres.
The consultation shows that from July 1 to 15, dispersion conditions will be generally average across most of the country, with air quality primarily at good to lightly polluted levels. Under the influence of high temperatures and clear skies, some cities in central-southern North China, the Fenwei Plain, and southern Northeast China may experience moderate ozone pollution. Meanwhile, some northwestern areas in Xinjiang may see PM10 pollution at moderate or higher levels due to dust weather.
In the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and surrounding areas, high temperatures will lead to air quality that is mostly lightly to moderately polluted throughout the period. On July 1, northern parts will have good to excellent air quality, while central and southern parts will be good to lightly polluted. From July 2 to 4, dispersion conditions will worsen, and temperatures in parts of Hebei, Shandong, and Henan may exceed 35°C, resulting in strong ozone formation and mostly lightly to moderately polluted conditions. From July 5 to 6, precipitation and a weak northeast cold front will ease pollution. From July 7 to 10, dispersion conditions will again become unfavorable, and temperatures will rebound, with air quality mainly lightly to moderately polluted; however, around July 8, precipitation in Shandong will bring temporary relief. From July 11 to 15, scattered rainfall will slightly lower temperatures, and air quality will turn good to lightly polluted, with possible moderate pollution in some areas. The primary pollutant will be ozone.
In Beijing, temperatures will be generally high in the first half of July, with active photochemical reactions. Mild ozone pollution may occur from July 1 to 4, July 7 to 8, and July 13 to 15. During other periods, northerly winds and precipitation will keep air quality good. On July 5 to 6, rainfall and northerly winds will bring excellent air quality. From July 9 to 12, temperatures will drop and air quality will be good. The primary pollutant will be ozone.
In the Yangtze River Delta, the first half of the period will be affected by the Meiyu front, with air quality mostly good to excellent and localized light pollution in the north. From July 1 to 5, frequent rain will keep air quality good to excellent. From July 6 to 10, dispersion conditions will be average, with good to lightly polluted air in the central-north and good to excellent in the south. From July 11 to 13, rain will bring good to excellent air quality. From July 14 to 15, average dispersion conditions will result in good to lightly polluted air. The primary pollutant will be ozone.
In the Fenwei Plain, persistently high temperatures will favor ozone formation. From July 1 to 2, scattered rainfall will bring good to lightly polluted air. From July 3 to 9, most areas will experience sustained high temperatures, with moderate pollution possible in central-southern parts. From July 10 to 13, an upper trough and precipitation will ease pollution. From July 14 to 15, rising temperatures may again lead to moderate pollution in some central-southern areas. The primary pollutant will be ozone.
In the Northeast region, frequent weak cold air and rain are expected. From July 1 to 2, air quality will be good to excellent. From July 3 to 4, mild to moderate ozone pollution is possible in the south. From July 5 to 15, frequent rain will keep air quality good to excellent. The primary pollutant will be ozone.
In the South China region, southerly airflows and scattered rainfall will result in mainly good to excellent air quality. From July 1 to 3, northern central Guangdong may see good to lightly polluted air. From July 4 to 9, air quality will be good to excellent. From July 10 to 12, central-eastern Hubei, eastern Hunan, and northern Guangxi may experience good to lightly polluted air. From July 13 to 15, air quality will be good to excellent. The primary pollutants will be ozone or PM2.5.
In the Southwest region, high temperatures in the Sichuan-Chongqing area may lead to mild ozone pollution. From July 1 to 2, favorable rainfall will bring good to excellent air quality. From July 3 to 8, rising temperatures may cause good to lightly polluted air in Chongqing and the Chengdu Plain. From July 9 to 11, typhoon moisture and scattered rain will bring good to excellent air quality. From July 12 to 13, clearing skies and rising temperatures will again cause good to lightly polluted air in the Chengdu Plain. From July 14 to 15, new rainfall will bring good to excellent air quality. The primary pollutants will be ozone or PM2.5.
In the Northwest region, overall high temperatures will enhance ozone formation. From July 1 to 8, air quality will be mainly good to lightly polluted, with possible moderate pollution in localized Guanzhong, Shaanxi. From July 9 to 12, better dispersion will bring mainly good air quality. From July 13 to 15, rising temperatures may lead to moderate pollution in some eastern areas. In Xinjiang, northern and Tianshan North Slope cities will have good air quality, with possible brief light pollution; eastern Xinjiang may see moderate pollution; southern Xinjiang will experience moderate to heavy pollution from July 1 to 4, light to moderate pollution from July 5 to 11, and good to light pollution from July 12 to 15. The primary pollutants will be PM10 or ozone.